By: Todd Wheatley
(c) IQ-2k   05-26-16

According to my research and in concert with existing studies immediate action by the legislature is required to avoid catastrophic global warming. Such refrain should not require so much repetition though, obviously, Superstorm Sandy (2012) and the 2005 hurricane season failed to impress lawmakers. Some may point to the successful Paris climate talks, but that only serviced the international audience since many in the U.S. are still unconvinced. Alternatively the well informed found further evidence of the coming catastrophe with the arrival of warm waters off the coast of Peru (El Nino) and an additional feature nicknamed 'the blob'. The resulting El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) pattern triggered back-to-back records on global mean surface temperatures (2014, 2015). While the El Nino itself was also the strongest on record outpacing the destructive 1997 El Nino by a wide margin. Add in a very rare January hurricane and tropical development well ahead of the current hurricane season and it seems that a positive feedback loop has been set in motion. While most climate models anticipate positive feedback loops it means that higher temperatures will arrive much sooner than predicted.

Further records may hold off till the next El Nino arrives three to five years from now. Yet regardless of the timing records will be broken with increasing frequency. Keeping this positive feedback in check requires congress to act now and transition to a low-carbon economy. Unfortunately the political system of the United States has gotten so out of control the only means to enact effective legislation must come from baby steps. Otherwise the complicated economics and demographics of the 21st century will draw endless debate as noted by the 112th and 113th congressional bodies vying for the least productive in history. While marginal efforts late in the session of the 113th Congress kept the moniker of LEAST PRODUCTIVE to the 112th the title of "do nothing" still seems to fit quite well for both.

Despite the minor achievements of the past four years problems such as skyrocketing healthcare insurance, illegal immigration, and foreign trade imbalances are still worrisome though not catastrophic if left unsolved. Global warming on the other hand, will produce death and destruction not seen since Biblical times. If that weren't bad enough the politics are a nightmare due to systematic disinformation and the extended time horizon for major climate problems to arise. Still action must begin and soon. I have therefore addressed the scale of the problem and the intractability of those involved by proposing a 4-step process that emphasizes consensus building. The process involves a series of statements using language that is simple and to the point. Nothing will be lost or buried in the text for lawyers to fight over. In addition to brevity and clarity the simplicity should garner the maximum amount of public support and develop momentum. The voluntary actions of individuals and the limited regulatory action has done little to affect momentum. Likewise combining the four steps into one would promote endless debate and no action. As an alternative this method forces the hardest debate to the end where the opposition has much less opportunity to prevent action. The first step of this process starts with a STATEMENT OF AGREEMENT:

1. The government and people of the United States formally recognize the rise in global mean surface temperatures as evidenced by the data aggregated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Control (IPCC) and corroborated by the downward trend in arctic sea ice as presented by the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Denver, Colorado. Current and future data collected by those agencies will guide future debates towards prevention, mitigation, and adaptation.

Once again this process works by gaining momentum to ease the road for action, but ATTRIBUTION in step-2 holds the key. Each statement must be approved by congress, signed by the president, and made into law. Together the first two steps generate awareness and momentum while sending an unequivocal message that a problem exists. Yet even more important than becoming law these statements would be the first nationwide action towards global leadership in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. With the process started and the first hurdle complete step-2 builds consensus of ATTRIBUTION. It should be noted that mitigation has not been specified in order to achieve the widest possible consensus and end the debate on the cause of global warming.

2. The government and people of the United States formally recognize the rise in global mean surface temperatures as directly attributed to the rise of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from burning fossil fuel. All other proximate causes such as orbital eccentricity, increased solar output, and other natural processes have been eliminated.

The evidence will be placed into public record, voted on by congress, and signed into law. Future lawmakers can rail against the measure though like step-1 this symbolic action puts the governing body on record and allows them to voice whatever lame objection they may have. Hopefully it will get them voted out of office for stupidity. In a separate, but similar matter of stupidity congressman W.T. Akin of Missouri lost the 2012 election for a totally asinine comment about "a woman's reproduction shutting down during a 'legitimate' rape". While global warming does not create room for that level of stupidity brainless zealots and ideologues still must go. The country can longer afford such know nothing politicians. At any rate the overwhelming evidence and support will be on the side of human-caused global warming. Consequently those bearing false witness for personal gain will be publicly accountable. Perhaps not as immediately in the example above, but the evidence will continue to mount until measurable action is taken. And even then we are in for a wild stormy future.

As previously stated the step-2 is the key. Afterwards business practices and personal attitudes will rapidly change. The simple unambiguous words will help build consensus and drive momentum. Ideas for personal action will proliferate causing businesses to take notice and create market forces to drive solutions. Nevertheless more will be required. So the final segment of consensus building would initiate action by the national government with a STATEMENT OF INTENT. Consider the following, for example:

3. The government and people of the United States formally present our unified intent to establish a low-carbon economy with the aim of a zero-carbon economy by the end of the century. We will begin by raising automobile fuel efficiency standards every four years to eliminate this component of carbon emissions.

In this step the specific goal of achieving a zero-carbon economy by the end of the century will be too late to prevent catastrophic global warming, but would give the appearance of lead time to the energy and automobile sector. On the other hand passage of this statement would produce a growing divestiture of these industries across the country and across the globe. An example of the type of public pressure can be noted by the trouble surrounding Exxon-Mobile at its May 25th conference in Dallas. So I would again like to point out the value of this four step process as a means to drive momentum. Or put another way ... as a means to drive market forces well before specific federal action can be thwarted through endless debate and legal action. By focusing and limiting each debate attitudes will change and the resulting economics will restructure energy and transportation. Still the United States cannot go it alone. This is a global problem and will require global action. The final step will ensure a CARBON NEUTRAL globe by providing incentives and penalties to the remaining nations that do not enact substantial reductions in greenhouse gases. Consequently the fourth and final step binds the wealthy nations into a leadership block to ensure compliance. This step might read as follows:

4. The government and people of the United States formally announce the diplomatic effort to bind with the G7 nations in achieving carbon neutral economies capable of providing incentives and penalties to all remaining nations in lieu of non-binding or voluntary international agreements to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

In other words this solution to GLOBAL WARMING portends failure of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement since no enforcement mechanisms were set in place as was the case for the failed Kyoto Accord (1997). Naturally there will be some reduction in the growth of greenhouse gas emissions even without a major shift away from fossil fuels. However as time passes existing efforts will reduce the demand for crude oil resulting in a downward price spiral. Ironically the reduced price will enable the poorer countries in South America and Africa to increase oil consumption that will in turn aide countries like Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iraq to keep producing. Ultimately the COP-21 Paris Climate Agreement will fail unless we start now and provide the necessary leadership. Additionally the political elites need to use the proper term when addressing this problem. THE REAL PROBLEM IS

... GLOBAL WARMING
... GLOBAL WARMING
... GLOBAL WARMING

CLIMATE CHANGE IS A SYMPTOM. We cannot cure a symptom! We can cure global warming if we start now. This plan will work albeit the forces of greed and ignorance grow by the day making me pessimistic of the future. Moreover I believe partisan politics in the U.S. will cause the society to self-destruct well before the extreme weather brought on by global warming does enough damage to effect a climate catastrophe. So in all candor I think you may want to follow my timeline to the apocalypse before it's too late.


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